The "2024 Domestic and International Oil and Gas Industry Development Report" was recently released in Beijing. The report indicates that China’s refining capacity will continue to see modest growth in 2024, with the sector undergoing rapid transformation and upgrades. The refining capacity is expected to peak during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.
Source: CCTV News
The "2024 Domestic and International Oil and Gas Industry Development Report" was recently released in Beijing. The report indicates that China’s refining capacity will continue to see modest growth in 2024, with the sector undergoing rapid transformation and upgrades. The refining capacity is expected to peak during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.
By 2024, China’s domestic refining capacity will reach 955 million tons per year, marking an increase of 19.3 million tons compared to the previous year. Although refined oil production is expected to decline, output for chemical feedstocks will continue to grow at a fast pace. Based on current construction, expansion, and proposed projects, China’s refining capacity is forecasted to peak around 2028, with a capacity of 980 million tons annually. Following that, some outdated capacities will be phased out, and by 2030, China’s refining capacity is expected to decrease to approximately 960 million tons per year.
Lu Ruquan, Director of the Economic and Technical Research Institute of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), noted that the next step will involve integrating smaller refineries and enhancing efficiency. This could include transforming some smaller refineries into biomass fuel processing plants and supporting the development of hydrogen energy. “In essence, the focus should be on high-end chemicals, which will help elevate the quality of the refining industry. We expect to see significant progress in the development of new materials and emerging sectors in the future,” he said.
The report forecasts that during the 14th Five-Year Plan, the refining industry will speed up mergers and acquisitions, leveraging scale advantages through clustering, integration, and park-based development to better manage external risks. By 2030, the average capacity of refineries across China is expected to reach 5.35 million tons annually, an increase of 530,000 tons from 2024. Refineries with a capacity of 10 million tons or more per year are expected to account for 60.7% of the total, up 4.7 percentage points from 2024. Key petrochemical hubs, including Dalian Changxing Island, Lianyungang in Jiangsu, Ningbo in Zhejiang, Gulei in Fujian, and Huizhou Daya Bay in Guangdong, are also expected to be largely completed.