China Electricity Council (CEC) has released its 2024-2025 National Power Supply and Demand Analysis and Forecast Report, projecting significant shifts in the country’s energy landscape.
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China Electricity Council (CEC) has released its 2024-2025 National Power Supply and Demand Analysis and Forecast Report, projecting significant shifts in the country’s energy landscape. According to the report, China’s total electricity consumption is expected to reach 9.85 trillion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2024, marking a 6.8% year-on-year increase. By the end of 2025, the country’s total installed power generation capacity is set to exceed 3.8 billion kilowatts (kW), up approximately 14% from 2024, with coal power’s share dropping to just one-third.
Electricity consumption across all sectors—including agriculture, industry, and services—has increased 29.5% compared to 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 6.7% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. All provinces are expected to see positive electricity demand growth in 2024, with year-on-year increases of 6.8% in the east, 6.9% in the central region, 7.5% in the west, and 2.5% in the northeast, making the western region the fastest-growing.
By the end of 2024, China’s total installed power capacity is projected to reach 3.35 billion kW, a 14.6% increase year-on-year. Notably, renewable energy capacity—including wind, solar, and biomass—will reach 1.45 billion kW, surpassing coal power for the first time. Non-fossil fuel power generation is expected to grow 15.4% year-on-year, contributing 84.2% of the total increase in power generation.
In 2025, total electricity consumption is expected to rise to 10.4 trillion kWh, a 6% increase year-on-year. The country’s total newly installed power capacity is forecast to exceed 450 million kW, with more than 300 million kW coming from renewables. By year-end, coal power’s share of total installed capacity will fall to one-third, while non-fossil energy capacity will reach 2.3 billion kW, accounting for about 60% of the total. In 2025, the combined installed capacity of solar and wind power is set to exceed coal power, signaling a major shift in China’s energy mix. However, as renewable energy penetration increases, some regions may face growing challenges in grid integration and energy balancing.